Viet Nam to put its case at Copenhagen

by Vu Thu Ha

The rhetoric of the world’s summiteers before their arrival in Copenhagen, Denmark, for the United Nations Climate Change Conference prompted the feeling that the will to forge a new global treaty to meet the potential catastrophe had never been stronger.

Promises by the rich – the United States – and the rising – China and India – to finally curb their greenhouse-gases after years of ambivalence sparked high hopes of a long-term global goal for emission reduction from 2012 – the year the provisions of the Kyoto protocol expire.

In addition, the United States Environmental Protection Agency declared it would regulate the principal greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, as a dangerous pollutant.

The announcement paves the way for President Barack Obama to argue for a successful global carbon-reduction agreement at the make-or-break summit.

But it’s still too early to be optimistic.

Setting a new target for emission reductions may provide some relief, but a breakthrough agreement could be upset by another factor – money for developing countries – a crucial component of any possible deal.

So far it seems mostly to have been neglected.

Feeling the heat

The impact of climate change has already begun and it has the potential to become a nightmare for many developing countries, including Viet Nam.

Millions of Vietnamese now “feel the heat” of global warming with more frequent and increasingly unpredictable heavy storms and floods.

And with the sea forecast to rise one metre by 2100, Viet Nam could become one of the countries worst hit.

But as numerous developing countries, Viet Nam, with its limited funds, cannot afford to tackle the problem without the technical and financial support of the developed countries, explains Nguyen Khac Hieu, deputy director general of the Hydro-Meteorology and Climate Change Agency of Viet Nam and member of its delegation to the Copen-hagen summit.

The Viet Nam government is to spend US$135 million on a National Target Programme to tackle climate change between 2009-2015 and almost half the money will be provided by foreign donors.

But the World Bank estimates that poor countries will need up to $100 billion a year from now to 2050, to cope with the effects of global warming.

In Copenhagen, representatives of the developing countries are calling for the industrialised countries to pledge about one per cent of their gross domestic product each year – about $400 billion – to help them switch to a low-carbon economy and reinforce their defences against climate change.

These would include adaptation, mitigation and reforestation.

The figure seems unlikely to be realised.

Although Britain and France have suggested a $10-billion fast-track assistant fund, it falls far short of the amount needed and developing-country delegates spurned the offer as inadequate almost immediately the summit began.

Below capacity

With most of the world’s major economies still working at below capacity; national budgets already squeezed and high unemployment, government generosity does not come easily.

So far only Britain has made a public contribution; it totals $1.3 billion.

Some European nations remain reluctant to contribute more money and any pledges from President Obama are likely to raise opposition in congress from climate-change “contrarians” and those who believe an already indebted country cannot afford largesse.

But if the rich countries, which are largely responsible for the global carbon emissions and are far better placed to tackle it, refuse to meet their obligations and leave Copenhagen without a coherent and specific fund to help the poor countries, the poor will quickly fall into cynicism.

A history of broken promises has already made poor countries deeply distrustful of rich-country promises.

A BBC World Service investigation broadcast last month found that a significant financial pledge made in 2001 to help the poorer nations tackle climate change has not been honoured.

The United Nations says the 20 nations who made the promise agreed to pay $410 million a year as part of what was called the “Bonn Declaration”.

But a BBC analysis suggests that although there should now be up to $2.9 billion in the pool – only $260 million has so far been made available.

Talk is cheap.

Honouring a pledge is far more difficult.

And even if an agreement to create a new interim fund is made at Copenhagen, the job will only have just started.

The money will still have to be fairly distributed and thoroughly monitored to ensure that it is not wasted.

But please remember this: For the rich countries it’s a matter of money. For the poor countries it’s a matter of life and death. — VNS